International Relations -- Pakistan's Central Front

January 2, 2008

by Faiz Shakir, Amanda Terkel, Satyam Khanna, Matt Corley, and Ali Frick

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Pakistan's Central Front

After narrowly surviving a suicide attack in October that killed 150 people, former Pakistani prime minister Benazir Bhutto was assassinated on Dec. 27, as she waved to a throng of supporters from the sunroof of her armored vehicle. On the same day, four aides to former prime minister Nawaz Sharif were also shot and killed at a separate election rally. These deplorable acts put a spotlight on the rising political instability and escalating violence that has deteriorated Pakistani society at a time when the United States's focus has been catastrophically diverted to Iraq. "Pakistan today exemplifies the failure of the Bush administration's insistence that Iraq is the 'central front on the war on terror,'" and it is at the nexus of the most pressing security challenges faced by the international community. A recent survey of foreign policy experts found that more than half of them "believe the current U.S. policy toward Pakistan is having a negative impact on U.S. national security." Bhutto's assassination, while tragic, provides a critical opportunity to begin to alter the Bush administration's flawed approach. Rather than being locked into a short-term strategy of supporting individual Pakistani leaders, the United States must start investing resources into a long-term comprehensive, integrated counterterrorism strategy that places the emphasis on strong democratic institutions.

NEED FOR INVESTIGATION: Nearly a week after Bhutto was killed in a well-planned attack, authorities are still not certain who was behind it. "Finding and naming those responsible must be the first order of business." Pakistani investigators, "working from a single intelligence intercept collected the day after Ms. Bhutto's death, have identified a militant leader, Baitullah Mehsud, as the chief suspect behind the attack." But the thinly sourced nature of that explanation has not convinced American officials, and the Pakistani government's handling of the investigation has not engendered much confidence. Just yesterday, "in a dramatic U-turn," the government was forced to apologize for claiming that Bhutto had died of a skull fracture rather than bullet wounds. Because the Musharraf government had failed to provide sufficient security arrangements for Bhutto prior to her death and because there is rampant speculation that government elements may even have been involved in the attack, there is an added burden on the Pakistani government to lead an investigation that is both independent and credible.

FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS: Pakistan's national parliamentary elections, which were scheduled to be held in a week, will now "be delayed by one month following the turmoil sparked by Benazir Bhutto's assassination." A temporary postponement appears to be the most prudent course. "Free and fair elections are essential, but the timing must be predicated on a political environment in which such elections are possible." Even before Bhutto's assassination, an international pre-election monitoring team led by former Senate majority leader Tom Daschle warned that the integrity of the Pakistani elections may be seriously compromised due to lack of electoral transparency and insecurity. Rather than press the Pakistani government to correct its institutional flaws, President Bush said last month that President Musharraf "truly is somebody who believes in democracy" after Musharraf imposed emergency rule, shut down free media outlets, sacked judges, and jailed thousands of lawyers and civil society activists.

A PAKISTAN POLICY NEEDED: In 1999, Bush could not name Pervez Musharraf as the leader of Pakistan, but still managed to claim that Musharraf was "committed to reinstating democratically elected government." In eight years, Bush has learned Musharraf's name but hasn't progressed much beyond his original talking point. Center for American Progress Senior Fellow Brian Katulis -- who recently returned from a visit to Pakistan -- writes the Bush administration has unwisely hitched its "plans to singular personalities rather than developing the institutions to advance U.S. interests." "We need a Pakistani policy, a consistent policy toward the government and the people of Pakistan, not a policy that holds all our hopes on one man, Musharraf," said Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Joseph Biden (D-DE). Katulis writes that the first step in recalibrating U.S. policy is to begin "building a system based on rule of law and democracy that is capable of bringing terrorists to justice and ensuring that the judiciary is independent." Biden has argued that America should increase its non-military financial aid to Pakistan, taking an approach centered on the well-being of the Pakistani people. "Instead of funding military hardware, it would build schools, clinics, and roads," he said

ADMINISTRATION -- 9/11 COMMISSION CALLS CIA'S TAPE DESTRUCTION 'OBSTRUCTION': In an op-ed in today's New York Times titled 'Stonewalled by the C.I.A.,' Thomas Kean and Lee Hamilton, respectively the chairman and vice chairman of the 9/11 commission, denounce the CIA's refusal to hand over hours of videotape footage of interrogations of al Qaeda operatives, even after the commission specifically requested material about the interrogations of Abu Zubaydah and Abd al-Rahim al-Nashiri. "Those who knew about those videotapes -- and did not tell us about them -- obstructed our investigation," Kean and Hamilton write. Last month, Kean explained that Hamilton had "looked the director of the CIA in the face, and said, Look, even if we haven't asked for something, if it's pertinent to our investigation, make it available to us. And our staff asked again and again of their staff and the tapes were not given to us." A CIA spokesman countered, "The notion that the CIA wasn't cooperative or forthcoming with the 9/11 commission is just plain wrong. It is utterly without foundation." Yet Kean and Hamilton conclude, "[G]overnment officials decided not to inform a lawfully constituted body, created by Congress and the president, to investigate one the greatest tragedies to confront this country. We call that obstruction."

IRAQ -- RETURNING IRAQIS FACE LACK OF SERVICES, DISPUTES OVER PROPERTY: As violence in Iraq decreased in 2007, "thousands of people who'd fled their homes returned, especially in Baghdad." But those who return are facing precarious situations. According to McClatchy, "uneasy peace and overtaxed services and utilities leave the country unprepared for mass returns." Gen. David Petraeus said that the goal of resettlement "would be difficult to meet, and he predicted violence as homeowners and squatters battle over property," as "he didn't have ground forces capable of organizing returns, settling property debates and maintaining safety." The U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees said in November that it "does not believe that the time has come to promote, organize or encourage returns," as security "remains volatile and unpredictable." In December, the Iraqi government urged some refugees not to go back to their homes yet, admitting the country was unprepared to accommodate their return. "The reality is that we cannot handle a huge influx of people," Iraq's minister of displacement and migration said.

IRAQ -- FORMER SEN. JOHN EDWARDS EMBRACES STRATEGIC RESET PLAN TO END TRAINING FOR IRAQI TROOPS: Former senator John Edwards, who is seeking to be the Democratic presidential nominee, told The New York Times on Sunday "that if elected president he would withdraw the American troops who are training the Iraqi army and police as part of a broader plan to remove virtually all American forces within 10 months." "To me, that is a continuation of the occupation of Iraq," Edwards told the paper. Edwards's plan, which may continue "to train Iraqi forces outside of the country," echoes the strategy laid out in the Center for American Progress's Strategic Reset report. The report, written by Brian Katulis, Lawrence Korb, and Peter Juul, calls for "ceasing the unconditional arming and training of Iraq's national security forces until a political consensus and sustainable political solution is reached." "Spending billions to arm Iraq's security forces without political consensus among Iraq's leaders carries significant risks," write the report's authors. "The largest of which is arming faction-ridden national Iraqi units before a unified national government exists that these armed forces will loyally support." Edwards embraced this reasoning, telling The New York Times, "I absolutely believe this to my soul: we are there propping up their bad behavior."

According to the Washington Times, President Bush "is benefiting from a Karl Rove-free White House and the lower-profile approach of his successor," Barry Jackson, who is now "the right fit for a president now reliant on Republican legislators sticking with him."

After enjoying "a good rest" at his Crawford, TX, ranch, President Bush returns to Washington with an "ambitious agenda for 2008," which includes "tackling the mortgage lending crisis," "securing more money from Congress for Iraq," and pushing Congress to "permanently revise the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act."

In "the most brazen and deadly attack" that Baghdad has seen in months, 36 people were killed and 32 were wounded by a suicide bomber who "targeted a funeral procession for a victim of another bombing." There has been "a slight rise in suicide car and vest bombs" in Iraq since October.

"An outspoken Saudi blogger is being held for 'purposes of interrogation,' the Saudi Interior Ministry confirmed Tuesday." Fouah al-Farhan, whose blog "discusses social issues," wrote in a letter to friends before he was arrested that he is being targeted because of his writings on "political prisoners here in Saudi Arabia."

"Five years after passage of a federal law to create electronic registration databases to deter voter fraud, the new technology is posing hurdles that could disenfranchise thousands of legal voters," according to USA Today.

"The Pakistani election commission, citing uncivil unrest following the assassination of political leader Benazir Bhutto last week, on Wednesday delayed upcoming parliamentary elections until Feb. 18."

"Aid agencies today warned of a humanitarian disaster in Kenya as post election violence escalated amid claims of 'ethnic cleansing' by rival tribes." Estimates say up to 100,000 people have been displaced and more than 300 have been killed.

Oil prices fell two cents on Monday, yet still closed out 2007 "57 percent higher than where they began."

And finally: The Clare Booth Luce Policy Institute wants you to keep track of the new year with its annual "pinup calendar of conservative women." Gracing the pages are political commentator Bay Buchanan, blogger Michelle Malkin, and "author and calendar stalwart" Ann Coulter. Institute President Michelle Easton "fantasizes about a day when a conservative women's magazine competes for supermarket shelf space with Glamour and Cosmopolitan."

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"President Bush on Monday signed a bill aimed at giving the public and the media greater access to information about what the government is doing" and toughening the Freedom of Information Act, "the first such makeover to the signature public-access law in a decade."

NEW HAMSPHIRE: Roughly 100 couples in New Hampshire united under the state's civil union law that took effect yesterday.

SOUTH CAROLINA: State law "allows anyone age 60 or older to take college classes without paying tuition."

LOUISIANA: "New Orleans -- the bloodiest city in the country in 2006 -- got even bloodier in 2007."

THINK PROGRESS: President Bush issues a signing statement undermining the Sudan Accountability and Divestment Act.

GLENN GREENWALD: The gap between America's military spending and the rest of the world is larger than ever.

TPM MUCKRAKER: The list of Bush administration officials caught up in "corruption of office" scandals increased to 42 in 2007.

DAILY KOS: The Washington Post's Richard Cohen condones Sen. John McCain's (R-AZ) lying because he knows "his character."

"The brutal treatment of innocent civilians in Darfur is unacceptable. ... This status quo must not continue."
-- President Bush, 4/18/07

VERSUS

"Bush's signature [to the Sudan Accountability and Divestment Act] was accompanied by a proviso known as a signing statement, in which he said he was reserving the authority to overrule state and local divestment decisions if they conflicted with foreign policy."
-- New York Times, 1/1/08

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Pakistan's Central Front

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