by Faiz Shakir, Amanda Terkel, Satyam Khanna, Matt Corley, and Ali Frick

ELECTION '08

The Beginning Of The End Of Bush

In Jan. 2007, Newsweek conducted a poll asking Americans if "they wish the Bush presidency [were] simply over." Fifty-eight percent of respondents said they did, including 59 percent of independents and 21 percent of Republicans. Today in Iowa, the final chapter of President Bush's two terms in office will begin to unfold as an estimated 200,000 to 240,000 voters participate in the first nominating battle of the 2008 election. With Bush's approval rating hovering around 33 percent -- and with roughly 67 percent of Americans believing that the country is on the "wrong track" -- a common thread running through the campaigns of the candidates from both parties is the need for a break from the policies and passions of the Bush years. Last month, Democratic pollster Peter Hart and Republican pollster Bill McInturff surveyed whether Americans were looking for "small adjustments," "to turn the page," or to start "a brand new book." Respondents preferred "a brand new book" by a margin of 17 percentage points over "turn the page" and 22 percentage points over "small adjustments." As the Des Moines Register editorializes today, for a country yearning for a new beginning, participants in the Iowa caucuses have "a more awesome responsibility this year than ever" to pick someone who can fix the problems wrought by eight years of Bush.

RUNNING AWAY FROM BUSH: On MSNBC's Hardball last month, host Chris Matthews asked Sen. John McCain (R-AZ): "Should the Bushies vote for you because you're the closest thing to keeping him in for a third term?" Instead of embracing the President, McCain laughed awkwardly before saying, "I hope they would vote for me because they recognize the challenges, particularly in national security." McCain isn't the only conservative avoiding comparisons to Bush. In a recent CNN debate, Bush's name was never once mentioned by any of the candidates from his own party. Writing in Foreign Affairs, former Republican Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee directly criticized the Bush administration for having an "arrogant bunker mentality" that "has been counterproductive at home and abroad." Huckabee's rival, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, originally attacked him over his criticism, saying he owed Bush an apology, but now Romney is "distancing himself from his party's unpopular president" by calling him a bad manager.

THE CHANGE ARGUMENT: "After a yearlong campaign in Iowa, the Republican and Democratic presidential front-runners are boiling down their arguments to a six-letter word: change," writes Bloomberg's Julianna Goldman. Though each candidate has a different idea of what form that change should take and how it can best be delivered, almost all of them are arguing that it is necessary. In a recent event in Indianola, IA, Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) mentioned the word "change" 21 times. In his televised closing argument yesterday, Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) asked, "Who can take us in a fundamentally new direction?" Romney says he wants to bring the "spirit of change" to Washington, DC. "If we don't make some changes to the way we do business in this country," argues Huckabee, "there won't be enough of an America left to still be fighting for." Former Democratic senator John Edwards tells crowds that "unless you've got a president who's willing to take on" special interests to which the Bush administration catered, "nothing's going to change." Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), who has raised more money this quarter than any other Republican, considers himself "a genuine true believer that this country is ready for a real change."

WAITING FOR JAN. '09: At the recent United Nations conference in Bali on climate change, former vice president Al Gore told representatives from countries around the world that "over the next two years, the United States is going to be somewhere it is not now. You must anticipate that." As Gore argues, the real progress on important issues such as climate change that Americans urgently desire will unfortunately have to wait until the next president takes office. On issue after issue, Americans want results that the current administration is unwilling to work towards. In November, 73 percent of Americans said the U.S. health care system is either in a "state of crisis" or has "major problems" while 64 percent said that "it is the responsibility of the federal government to make sure all Americans have health coverage." Sixty-three percent say the Iraq war is not worth the cost it exerts on the United States. A recent CBS/New York Times poll found that nearly 50 percent of Americans say troops should return in less than a year, and nearly 25 percent want withdrawal in under two years.

ETHICS -- FOLEY SCANDAL DEBT FORCED HASTERT TO 'SHUT DOWN HIS CAMPAIGN': According to Federal Election Commission (FEC) documents, former House speaker Dennis Hastert "failed to disclose in early January 2007 that his 2006 reelection campaign had run up $147,000 in legal bills stemming from his connection with the Foley investigation." In order to avoid further fines,  "Hastert quietly agreed last summer to shut down his campaign and pay a $1,000 penalty." The Washington Post notes that Hastert kept the information about the legal woes away from the public, not mentioning "his campaign's legal debt from the Foley scandal, or the settlement his lawyers were brokering with the FEC" when Hastert announced his intention to resign in August. Hastert and "at least three of his aides were told of allegations that then-Rep. Mark Foley (R-FL) had improper e-mail contacts with a former House page months before the incident became public." As Mary Anne Akers of the Washington Post writes, the question is "why Hastert, who made millions of dollars off land deals while he was in Congress (including some that raised ethical questions), didn't pay his legal bills out of his own pocket rather than putting his lawyers on the campaign payroll and having his contributors foot the bill." ENVIRONMENT -- CALIFORNIA SUES EPA FOR BLOCKING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION LIMITS: In a lawsuit filed in San Francisco yesterday, California accused the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) of overstepping its authority when it barred the state from enforcing limits on vehicle emissions that contribute to global warming. Under the Federal Clean Air Act, states must retain a waiver from the EPA to set their own standards on air pollutants. Breaking with "decades of precedent," the EPA last month denied California this waiver to enact its proposed limits on greenhouse gas emissions from new cars and trucks. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) said yesterday that federal regulators were "ignoring the will of millions of people who want their government to take action in the fight against global warming." The law, passed in 2002, "was scheduled to take effect with the 2009 models and would require automakers to reduce their 2016 fleets' emissions by 30 percent." Joining California in the suit are 15 other states that have adopted California's standards. ADMINISTRATION -- PERINO FALSELY CLAIMED CONGRESS HAS 'NOT MOVED FORWARD' ON BUSH'S NOMINEES: Yesterday, a reporter asked White House Press Secretary Dana Perino about President Bush's "most important priorities" for 2008. She instead bashed Congress for its failure to "move forward" on confirming more of the President's nominees, saying, "It is really unfortunate that Congress has not moved forward on its obligation to have hearings and to hold votes, because the president has nominated very good people." In fact, as the Los Angeles Times reported yesterday, the 110th Congress has approved 40 of Bush's judges, "more than in the previous three years when Republicans held the majority." The nominees currently being blocked in the Senate are some of the most controversial, including Steven Bradbury, acting chief of the Justice Department's Office of Legal Counsel, who "signed two secret memos in 2005 saying it was OK for the CIA use harsh interrogation techniques" on detainees. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) was forced to hold "pro forma" Senate sessions over the holidays to prevent Bush from installing his nominees through recess appointments.

The Wall Street Journal writes that tonight's Iowa caucus presents "the first test of whether a populist message can resonate in the 2008 campaign. In the frantic closing days, as candidates have touted their resumes and needled their opponents, two leading contenders from each party -- Democrat John Edwards and Republican Mike Huckabee -- have ramped up their anti-corporate, anti-Wall Street rhetoric." The Bush administration will "open up nearly 46,000 square miles off Alaska's northwest coast to petroleum leases next month, a decision condemned by environmental groups that contend the industrial activity will harm northern marine mammals." Supporters of Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-NY) conducted a sit-in at his Brooklyn office yesterday, calling for the impeachment of Vice President Cheney. The activists want Nadler to use his position as the Chairman of the House Subcommittee on the Constitution to force a hearing on the matter. "Iran's leaders are no longer supplying weapons or training to Islamic militants in Iraq," according to a spokesman for Gen. David Petraeus, who "sees Iran as following through on assurances it made to Iraqi and U.S. officials last fall not to assist extremists in Iraq." Petraeus also credited the Syrian government for cutting the flow of al Qaeda fighters into Iraq.  "U.S. admissions of Iraqi refugees are nose-diving amid bureaucratic in-fighting despite the Bush administration's pledge to boost them to roughly 1,000 per month, according to State Department statistics." For the past three months, the number of refugees admitted has declined, hitting just 245 in December. Former Sen. Conrad Burns, (R-MT), who received extensive contributions from convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff, "is no longer under investigation by the Justice Department for his connections" to Abramoff. An FEC audit revealed that "Sen. Arlen Specter's 2004 re-election campaign collected more than $1 million in excessive contributions, failed to properly disclose hundreds of thousands of dollars in receipts from political party committees and political action committees, and missed a key reporting deadline before the primary election." And finally: Author Nora Ephron isn't happy about Weekly Standard editor Bill Kristol receiving a column in The New York Times. Number five on her list of New Year's resolutions is to get Kristol "fired" from the paper. "I don't think any actual work is going to be required in this area; this will come to pass as soon as he starts writing for the paper and whoever hired him actually reads his copy," she writes.

This holiday season, no Marines based out of Camp Pendleton died in fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan -- the first time a month has gone by without a death since March 2006. "I look at it as good news," said Staff Sgt. Johnathan Turner, a veteran of three tours of duty in Iraq. "It means things are getting better over there."

INDIANA: City councilman "sworn into office for a second term, even though he's serving as a Marine in Iraq."

RHODE ISLAND: State joins suit the Environmental Protection Agency for denying California's greenhouse gas limits on automobiles.

OKLAHOMA: "Thousands" of immigrants have left Oklahoma since a punitive immigration law went into effect on Nov. 1.

THINK PROGRESS: Former senator John Edwards finally gets on board Strategic Reset plan; will others follow?

INFORMED COMMENT: Iraqi civilian deaths increased in 2007.

NEWSHOUNDS: On Fox News, Concerned Women for America President Wendy Wright claims supporters of comprehensive sex education want kids to get STDs.

TOO HOT FOR TNR: A spokesman for the American Legion calls National Review's Jonah Goldberg "slanderous" and "laughable" for arguing that the Legion was "founded as an essentially fascist organization."

"And it really is unfortunate that Congress has not moved forward on its obligation to have hearings and to hold votes."
-- White House Press Secretary Dana Perino, 1/2/08, on President Bush's judicial nominees

VERSUS

"Despite the Republicans' loss of control of the Senate, 40 of Bush's judges won confirmation this year, more than in the previous three years when Republicans held the majority."
-- Los Angeles Times, 1/2/08