Iraq -- 'Fragile And Reversible'

April 9, 2008

by Faiz Shakir, Amanda Terkel, Satyam Khanna, Matt Corley, Ali Frick, Benjamin Armbruster, and Matt Duss

IRAQ

'Fragile And Reversible'

The appearance of Amb. Ryan Crocker and Gen. David Petraeus before the Senate yesterday offered few surprises. The two men largely repeated their testimony last September: Iraq's "armed forces continue to improve, levels of violence are lower than they were last year," and political reconciliation is happening slowly. Echoing the words of his boss, Petraeus characterized the situation in Iraq as "fragile and reversible." It could not go unnoticed that Petraeus and Crocker gave their testimony as hundreds of Iraqis fled intense fighting in Baghdad's Sadr City neighborhood, with U.S. and Iraqi forces battling Moqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army militia. Petraeus and Crocker's unwillingness to offer specifics on what conditions might permit a U.S. withdrawal left even conservative senators dissatisfied. Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) asked, "Where do we go from here?" Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) added, "I think people want a sense of what the end is going to look like." Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH) suggested an alternative course: Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt need to be told, "Hey guys, we're on our way out."

SURGE SUCCESS?: Petraeus and Crocker both tried to paint a positive picture of the surge's success. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), who has been one of the strongest supporters of the war, claimed, "We are no longer staring into the abyss of defeat." Challenged by McCain on the troubled Basra offensive in late March, Petraeus insisted that Prime Minister Maliki "had rejected his advice to delay the offensive until Iraqi troops were better prepared." The Washington Post's Tom Ricks reported that Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) "tried to set up...a useful sound bite," asking, "What would be the military consequences of pulling out one brigade a month, starting in January?" Petraeus didn't cooperate, however, responding that, "If conditions were good, it would be doable." Ricks said that this exchange demonstrated where the "'surge' cheerleading runs into a lot of trouble. ... If things are going so well, then we should be able to begin the process of withdrawing our forces. But they say we can't." Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-MA) challenged the idea that the U.S. must stay indefinitely in Iraq. "A year ago, the president said we couldn't withdraw because there was too much violence," he said. "Now he says we can't afford to withdraw because violence is down."

IS IRAQ WAR MAKING US SAFER?: Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) challenged Crocker on whether focusing on al Qaeda in Iraq was the wisest use of resources, noting that the United States is "currently spending five times as much in Iraq as we are in Afghanistan on a monthly basis." Crocker said that "Osama bin Laden fairly recently referred to Iraq as the perfect base for al Qaeda," to which Bayh responded, "I would...caution us to not take our marching orders from Osama bin Laden. And it might occur to some that he says these things because he wants us to respond to them in a predictable way and we should not do that for him." At the Foreign Relations Committee hearing, Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) cornered Crocker on "whether Al Qaeda is a greater threat to US interests in Iraq, or in the Afghan-Pakistan border region?" After trying hard to avoid the question, Crocker replied that he would "pick Al Qaeda on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border." Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) picked up that thread, stating once again his belief that "the original decision to go into Iraq was a massive strategic blunder," and that the problems of "Al Qaeda in Iraq and increased Iranian influence in the region...are a direct result of that original decision." Voinovich suggested the war is helping to achieve al Qaeda's goals, claiming that "Osama bin Laden is sitting back right now looking at this thing [and saying] in effect, 'We're kinda bankrupting this country.'"

HOW DOES THIS END?: After spending nearly three-quarters of a trillion dollars, and losing 4,000 American lives alongside hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, the central question of this war is "how does this end?" Yet Petraeus's response to this question -- a unified, independent, and stable Iraq that is an ally in the global war on terrorism -- is more elusive today than it was when President Bush's military escalation began in early 2007. Addressing the issue of a long-term U.S. presence in Iraq, Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) put Crocker in a tough spot when she pointed out that the Iraqi parliament, but not the U.S. Congress, would have an opportunity to vote on a status of forces agreement between the two countries. "It seems odd, I think, to Americans who are being asked to commit for an indefinite period of time the lives of our young men and women in uniform...if the Iraqi parliament may have a chance to consider this agreement [and the] United States Congress may not." Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI) also expressed concern over the amount that U.S. taxpayers were providing for Iraq. "Levin estimated that the Iraqi government has about $30 billion in Iraqi banks, while the United States is largely funding reconstruction efforts and paying more than 100,000 workers engaged in those activities." This year, the U.S. will also hand over more than $150 million to Sunni tribal groups in exchange for their cooperation with the U.S. forces in Iraq, something which has been a central element in the surge's success. In a new article in Foreign Affairs, Steven Simon of the Council on Foreign Relations pointed out that "the sheiks take as much as 20 percent of every payment to a former insurgent -- which means that commanding 200 fighters can be worth well over a hundred thousand dollars a year for a tribal chief."

HEALTH -- GOVERNMENT-SPONSORED HEALTH WEBSITE BLOCKS SEARCHES ON 'ABORTION': Recently, the health-based search database Popline, run by Johns Hopkins University, began blocking searches on the word "abortion," thereby concealing "nearly 25,000 search results." The manager of the database said in an April 1 e-mail "that the university had recently begun blocking the search term because the database received federal funding." Today, NPR reports that the restriction began "because of articles from an abortion advocacy magazine available on the site." Michael Klag, the dean of the university's School of Public Health, called the block an "overreaction." "When Klag learned that the search function for abortion had been removed, he ordered it restored," and the block was dismantled Friday afternoon. By federal law, the U.S. Agency for International Development, which funds Popline, cannot support abortion activities. A spokeswoman for the agency said it had "problems with some of the materials on the site" but did not ask Popline to limit searches.

ADMINISTRATION -- DOJ OFFICIAL TO TESTIFY ON CONTRACTOR RAPE CLAIMS: Former KBR employee Jamie Leigh Jones testified to the House Judiciary Committee last December that she had been gang-raped by co-workers while working in Iraq and noted how "there has been no prosecution after two and a half years." Absent from the hearing was a representative from the Department of Justice (DOJ), a fact that Judiciary Committee Chairman John Conyers (D-MI) called "an absolute disgrace," adding that he was "embarrassed" by the Department. In "an apparent reversal of policy," DOJ will send Sigal Mandelker, a senior appointee in the criminal division "to answer questions before Congress on the investigation and prosecution of alleged sex crimes in Iraq and Afghanistan." According to Mandelker's prepared testimony, which was obtained by AP, the DOJ "has not prosecuted any cases involving sexual assaults against civilians who work for contractors in Iraq or Afghanistan, despite a law giving it that authority."

IRAQ -- PENTAGON FORCES McHENRY TO REMOVE VIDEO DETAILING INSURGENT ATTACKS: On Friday, Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-NC) posted a video on his website from his March 22 trip to Iraq. "Shot in the Green Zone, it showed McHenry gesturing to a building behind him and saying that one of 11 rockets 'hit just over my head.'" McHenry also named two other places struck by the rockets. On Monday, a veterans group called VoteVets.org accused McHenry of giving away intelligence information that could have aided organizations targeting Americans. On a posting online, VoteVets sharply criticized McHenry, noted that the information could be used to "kill Americans in the Green Zone" in the future. "Unfortunately, only two days after," VoteVets' Brandon Friedman observed, "more rockets rained down on the Green Zone -- this time killing two U.S. soldiers and wounding 17 in the most damaging attack on U.S. forces in the Green Zone since last year." The Pentagon has now agreed with VoteVets and told McHenry that he cannot re-air the video.

"You can't tell the enemy in Iraq anymore without a scorecard," writes the Washington Post's Dana Milbank, of Gen. David Petraeus's and Ambassador Ryan Crocker's discussion yesterday of Iranian-backed "special groups" in Iraq. "Of course, the new focus on the 'special groups' also served to highlight the fact that the American presence in Iraq is creating new and special enemies," he added.

Yesterday, on ABC's Nightline, Gen. Petraeus said of Iraq, "We will need to be there for a while." Ambassador Crocker described American involvement as a "multi-year project." "We're not looking for Jeffersonian Democracy. ... Iraq is not there yet right now, and there is certainly more work to be done," Petraeus added.

A congressional investigation has found that Julie Myers, the nation's top immigration enforcement official, "ordered the destruction of photographs of an office Halloween party" that showed her with "a white agency employee dressed as a black detainee." Myers had reportedly ordered the photos removed from a digital camera in a "'coordinated effort to conceal' her role in awarding one of the top costume prizes to the employee."

A federal investigation has concluded that Sen. Joe Lieberman's (I-CT) 2006 own re-election campaign was to blame for the crash of its Web site "the day before Connecticut's heated August 8 Democratic primary." In December 2006, Lieberman campaign spokesman Dan Gerstein claimed, "Our Web site consultant assured us in the strongest terms possible that we had been attacked," blaming supporters of challenger Ned Lamont.

A new GAO audit "found widespread abuses in a purchasing program meant to improve bureaucratic efficiency" with "[f]ederal employees [having] used government credit cards to pay for lingerie, gambling, iPods, Internet dating services, and a $13,000 steak-and-liquor dinner." The audit said that "nearly half the 'purchase card' transactions it examined were improper."

The Bush administration "plans to expand a government program that helps struggling borrowers keep their homes." The expansion "is designed to help about 100,000 homeowners, including many who owe more than their houses are worth, reduce their monthly payments" and to encourage "lenders to write down the value of the loans."

"In a major shift of policy," the Justice Department "has put off prosecuting more than 50 companies suspected of wrongdoing over the last three years." Instead, the companies "have avoided the cost and stigma of defending themselves against criminal charges with a so-called deferred prosecution agreement, which allows the government to collect fines and appoint an outside monitor to impose internal reforms without going through a trial."

And finally: "Oliver Stone's new film, W, portrays George Bush as a foul-mouthed, dried-out drunk with a baseball obsession and a difficult relationship with his father." Bush, to be played by actor Josh Brolin, is depicted as "as a party animal living in the shadow of his esteemed father before he uses religion to turn his life around." His new purpose in life? To "achieve the presidency ahead of his brother Jeb, who was being groomed for high office by his father."

The research team that brings you The Progress Report and ThinkProgress.org needs summer interns! Click here for more information.

"Enterprise Rent-A-Car, the nation's largest car rental company, launched one of its more ambitious efforts Wednesday, opening four new 'green branches' in Atlanta. About 60% of the vehicles at the chain's stores will be hybrids or other fuel-efficient vehicles."

MISSOURI: University of Missouri "opposes a proposed November ballot initiative designed to end affirmative action in public hiring and college admissions."

CALIFORNIA: Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) supports opening up state retirement system to private sector.

ECONOMY: Income inequality grows in most states over past two decades.

THINK PROGRESS: White House suggests President Bush may boycott Olympics opening ceremony.

WONK ROOM: Maryland global warming plan killed by job loss fears.

INFORMED COMMENT: National Review's Rich Lowry doesn't know what he's talking about when he claims Moqtada al-Sadr is "on the ropes."

EMPTY WHEEL: Rep. John Conyers (D-MI) requests that torture memo author John Yoo testify before Congress.

"The surge is doing what it was designed to do. ... [T]he surge is working."
-- President Bush, 3/27/08

VERSUS

"At least a dozen people were killed in Baghdad's Shi'ite slum of Sadr City on Wednesday, despite vehicle bans aimed at preventing unrest from spreading on the fifth anniversary of the fall of Baghdad."
-- Reuters, 4/9/08

Think Progress

'Fragile And Reversible'

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