Iran Impasse

Iran Impasse

April 10, 2006

It was reported this weekend that senior Bush administration officials are considering plans to bomb Iran to prevent the country from developing nuclear weapons.  The articles, including one by Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Seymour Hersh, detailed U.S. plans to use nuclear weapons to destroy suspected underground weapons facilities.  This would mark the first time these weapons were used in 61 years.  There is no good military solution to the Iranian nuclear impasse — diplomacy is what is needed most here. And while there are military options, they carry with them tremendous risks that threaten to undermine U.S. security at home and further destabilize the region.

• High-ranking military officials are strongly against the nuclear plans.  Seymour Hersh writes that the Joint Chiefs of Staff "had agreed to give President Bush a formal recommendation stating that they are strongly opposed to considering the nuclear option for Iran." This sentiment is shared throughout the military — there is a general opposition towards using nuclear weapons against other countries. British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw also spoke out this weekend against a nuclear strike, calling the idea "completely nuts."
  
  
  
  
• An air strike could actually speed up Iran’s nuclear program. This planned pre-emptive measure could backfire on the administration and would “almost certainly speed up [Iran’s nuclear program],” which occurred after Israel launched a pre-emptive strike on Iraq in 1981. After the attack, Iraq stepped up its weapons development dramatically. Carnegie Endowment nonproliferation expert Joseph Cirincione said "the bombing set back Israel more than Iraq" by further harming its international reputation while "making Iraq appear a victim of Israeli aggression." Similar dynamics are at play in Iran today.
  
  
  
• The problem with Iran lies with its regime.  The "consensus among U.S. intelligence agencies" is that Iran is "about a decade away" from acquiring a nuclear weapon, meaning that the situation today is "not a nuclear bomb crisis, it is a nuclear regime crisis."  Instead of pursuing ill-conceived military options, the Bush administration should be working to form an international coalition that will demand that Iran curb its nuclear ambitions or risk further international isolation.  The U.S. should be engaged in talks, not plans for nuclear strikes.