Progress Report, 7/11/06

Blaming the Other Guy – Again

July 11, 2006

By virtually every measure the Bush administration’s North Korea policy is a failure. Diplomatic efforts have broken down, missiles are being test fired, and plutonium production has resumed. Yesterday, Press Secretary Tony Snow unveiled the administration’s new strategy: bash Clinton. During the White House press conference, Snow accused the Clinton administration of going to North Korea with “flowers and chocolates,” and “light-water nuclear reactors.” The reality is that the Bush administration is now scrambling to return to where the Clinton administration left off: A meaningful diplomatic engagement that puts North Korea’s nuclear program on ice.

• Under President Clinton, North Korea produced no plutonium. In 1994, the United States almost went to war with North Korea to prevent the further development of their nuclear arsenal. The creation of the “Agreed Framework” – which prevented any conflict – forced North Korea to shut down its major nuclear reactor, stop construction of two nuclear power plants, and subject spent nuclear fuel to international inspection. In return, Japan and South Korea agreed to build two light-water reactors, which is far less of a proliferation concern, and the United States would supply North Korea with heavy oil to make up for the lost energy from its shuttered nuclear plants. While not perfect, the end result was that during the Clinton administration North Korea didn’t produce any plutonium. And it should be noted that this program received consistent support from the conservative leaders who controlled Congress at that time.

• Under President Bush, North Korea ratcheted up its plutonium production. Upon taking office, the Bush administration rejected Colin Powell’s recommendation to “pick up where President Clinton and his administration left off.” Instead, the Bush administration reversed Theodore Roosevelt’s approach to foreign policy, by speaking loudly but carrying no stick, and ramping up the rhetoric. When North Korea responded to the administration’s rhetoric by expelling international inspectors and unsealing its nuclear facilities, the Bush administration had no effective response. The result is that North Korea now has enough plutonium to produce as many as ten additional nuclear weapons.

• The Bush administration outsourced diplomacy to Russia and China. The Bush administration has been paralyzed on North Korea, split between pragmatists who want to negotiate an end to the nuclear program and ideologues who want to end the regime. Its strategy of “six-party talks,” meetings between the United States, North Korea, South Korea, China, Japan, and Russia, is a good one, but for two years these sessions went nowhere as U.S. negotiators were forbidden to actually negotiate. When the strategy of regime elimination proved feckless, the hardliners went to Plan B: Let China do it. When Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice opened direct, bilateral negotiations with North Korea in 2005, she made rapid progress producing a landmark agreement in September 2005 to end the nuclear program. But it was immediately sabotaged by hardliners who wanted to squeeze North Korea by blocking bank credits. North Korea responded with missile tests. It’s time to put Rice back in charge, and to negotiate a final end to the nuclear and missile programs.