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North Korea — Six Years of Failure
October 10, 2006
Yesterday, North Korea sent off a global panic when it announced it had successfully tested its first nuclear weapon. China, one of North Korea's closest supporters, called the test a "flagrant and brazen" violation of international opinion. President Bush reported that he had spoken with leaders from China, Russia, South Korea, and Japan, all of whom had agreed that the North Koreans' actions are "unacceptable and deserve an immediate response." This irresponsible act should not have come as a surprise. Intelligence released last week pointed to a likely nuclear test and in July, North Korea defied the international community and test-fired seven ballistic missiles. North Korea's rapid nuclear build-up can be traced back to the beginning of the Bush administration, when President Bush abandoned successful diplomatic initiatives put in place by the Clinton administration and ramped up the hard-line rhetoric. "North Korea's apparent nuclear test last night may well be regarded as a failure of the Bush administration's nuclear nonproliferation policy," reported Glenn Kessler of The Washington Post. With North Korea now possessing enough weapons-grade plutonium for as many as 13 nuclear weapons (opposed to separating zero plutonium during the Clinton administration), it's time to return to bilateral talks.
- A nuclear North Korea is a great global threat. Sunday's test was significant because it was the first "manifest proof" of the country's nuclear capabilities. It was also the first time any nation has tested a nuclear weapon since 1998. While some analysts have raised questions about the size of the detonation, the fact that North Korea is trying to claim that it completed a nuclear test at all is reason for a strong international response. European Union foreign policy and security chief Javier Solana called the test "a totally irresponsible act" with "wider proliferation implications" that "undermines regional security and stability." South Korea is already saying that North Korea may conduct additional tests and The Washington Post warned that the announcement may "unleash a nuclear arms race in Asia, with Japan and South Korea feeling pressure to build nuclear weapons for defensive reasons." Perhaps the most "nightmarish" scenario coming out of North Korea's announcement is the possibility that it may sell its nuclear technology to a terrorist organization or a fellow rogue regime.
- The administration’s North Korea policy has not worked. By virtually every measure, Bush's North Korea policy has been a failure. Diplomatic efforts have broken down and North Korea has resumed plutonium production. When Bush took office, North Korea had produced enough plutonium under President George H.W. Bush for 1-2 nuclear weapons. Today, the country possesses material for 4-13 nuclear weapons. If North Korea unloads another batch of fuel, it may have enough nuclear material for 8 to 17 nuclear bombs by 2008. Sunday's test was simply the culmination of the "Bush administration's haphazard diplomacy in Northeast Asia over the past six years," noted the Center for American Progress's Joseph Cirincione. The Bush administration ramped up the rhetoric, including North Korea in the "axis of evil" in his 2002 State of the Union address and talking about the possible need to take preemptive military action against the regime in the 2002 National Security Strategy Statement. But when North Korea responded by expelling international
- Now is not the time to abandon diplomacy. Strong sanctions are needed as a response to North Korea's announcement, but they must be paired with strong diplomacy. At an emergency U.N. Security Council meeting yesterday, the United States "pressed for international inspections of all cargo moving into and out of North Korea to detect weapons-related material, and a ban on all trading in military goods and services with the country." No one is suggesting that Bush go to North Korea with "flowers and chocolates" for President Kim Jong II. But carrots—including bilateral talks—do work. In a mix of effective economic sanctions, negotiations, and "face-saving" measures for President Moammar Gadhafi, the British and the United States persuaded Libya in 2003 to give up its nuclear weapons." Yesterday, James A. Baker, former Secretary of State under President George H.W. Bush, reiterated the importance of direct talks: "You don't give away anything, but in my view, it's not appeasement to talk to your enemies."
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