al-Qaeda on the March

al-Qaeda on the March

November 17, 2006

Overshadowed by Gen. John Abizaid’s Senate testimony on Wednesday was a surprisingly frank admission from the directors of the CIA and the Defense Intelligence Agency: al-Qaeda is back and is growing, and at an even more alarming rate than previously thought.“Al-Qaeda’s influence and numbers are rapidly growing in Afghanistan,” with fighters working in tandem with a resurgent Taliban to engage in a “bloody insurgency” that is “operating from new havens and mimicking techniques learned on the Iraqi battlefield.” The testimony contradicts frequent pronouncements by President Bush that terrorist networks worldwide are in decline. “It’s hard to plot and plan if you’re on the run.It’s hard to plot and plan if you're hiding,” Bush said at several pre-election campaign rallies. In fact, as U.S. intelligences again made clear yesterday, al-Qaeda is on the march.

• al-Qaeda is growing in Afghanistan.Numbers tell the story of al-Qaeda’s recent growth in Afghanistan. Insurgent activity “has risen fourfold this year,” with militants now launching more than 600 attacks a month in “a rising wave of violence that has resulted in 3,700 deaths in 2006.” One year ago, roadside bombs and suicide attacks “were rare occurrences in Afghanistan.” This year,there have already been 90 suicide attacks—roughly one every three days. Though administration officials “have repeatedly said that the battle against al-Qaeda has led to the death or capture of more than half of Osama bin Laden's top people,” CIA Director Gen. Michael Hayden said yesterday that “the group's cadre of seasoned, committed leaders” remains “fairly cohesive and focused on strategic objectives, ‘despite having lost a number of veterans over the years.’”
  
  
• While the U.S. is bogged down in Iraq, al-Qaeda is opening up new fronts elsewhere. This summer, an individual listed by the U.S. State Department as a suspected al-Qaeda collaborator was named as the new leader of a militia that seized control of Somalia’s capital. As Sen. Russ Feingold (R-WI) pointed out at the time, “While we were asleep at the switch…we are losing the battle to al Qaeda.....We’ve spent $2 million in Somalia in the last year while we’re spending $2 billion a week in Iraq.” Now those Islamists “control most of the country,” and Somalia is threatening to become “Africa’s Afghanistan.” Extremist elements throughout the Middle East—including Iran, Syria, Egypt, and Libya— have provided aid and arms to Somalia's Islamist movement, according to a new United Nations report, and American officials are reportedly concerned that “Somalia <could offer the kind of training bases for al-Qaeda elements that were once provided by the Taliban in Afghanistan.”
  
  
• American troops need to redeploy to properly guard against the terrorist threats. The April 2006 National Intelligence Estimate found that due to the Iraq war, “activists identifying themselves as jihadists, although a small percentage of Muslims, are increasing in both number and geographic dispersion.” Yet it does not follow that staying the course in Iraq, and maintaining a massive troop presence there, is the right strategy. Indeed,a letter from al-Qaeda’s leadership to their Iraq organization made public last month said the current Iraq strategy is exactly what al-Qaeda wants. American Progress’ Strategic Redeployment plan details why a phased withdrawal from Iraq is a vital step towards accomplishing several key anti-terrorism objectives: restoring the strength of U.S. ground troops; shifting military resources to meet the wider regional and global threats from terrorist networks, such as in Afghanistan and Africa; and quelling the growing anti-occupation nationalism in Iraq that is used by al-Qaeda to draw new recruits.