Diplomacy Matters

Diplomacy Matters

March 8, 2006

Later this week, with the aim of curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) will convene in Vienna, Austria. It is hoped that the meeting will produce a unified global message to Iran to curb its nuclear ambitions, which is a critical step to shifting Iran's position. Yet these positive steps have been jeopardized by the Bush Administration’s inept diplomacy. The most recent example is the White House’s dispatching of both Vice President Cheney and U.N. Ambassador John Bolton to unsettle the Iranian government with saber rattling. This goes against international consensus that Iran is not facing a “nuclear bomb crisis”, but a nuclear regime crisis.

• The Administration’s nuclear policy is in disarray. The Bush administration’s decision last week to press Congress to change laws prohibiting U.S. companies from exporting nuclear technology to India may strengthen U.S.- India relations, but it also undermines nonproliferation. For instance, the Bush administration wants China to support tough measures against Iran – a close ally of China’s – but accept the sale of nuclear technology to India, a long standing strategic adversary.
  
  
• Threatening Iran is counterproductive. Threatening Iran only hardens its goal of developing a turnkey nuclear capability – After all, a nuclear weapon is the ultimate trump card against foreign meddling. Iran has significant economic and political incentives to avoid increasing its international isolation. It has also been reported that support within Iran for its nuclear program is weakening due to its costs; thus a nuclear Iran is not inevitable.
  
  
• Meanwhile, North Korea is pressing ahead with its nuclear program. The Iranian nuclear threat has dominated recent news coverage, but North Korea – another piece of the “Axis of Evil” – remains a serious and growing nuclear threat. Not only is North Korea preparing to field a new range of ballistic missiles that have the potential to reach U.S. facilities, North Korea has restated its long held aversion to disarmament talks and grown diplomatically distant from South Korea.