Afghanistan on the Brink

Afghanistan on the Brink

April 19, 2006

In a recent visit to Afghanistan, President Bush depicted the country as an unqualified success story, calling it “inspiring.” The reality on the ground is much more troubling and complicated. According to a report released by the Council on Foreign Relations, Afghanistan is a country “challenged by a terrorist insurgency that has become more lethal and effective and that has bases in Pakistan, a drug trade that dominates the economy and corrupts the state, and pervasive poverty and insecurity.” Counter-terrorism expert Steven Simon predicts “There will likely be a crescendo of violence, focused largely on Kabul, this summer.” To avoid Afghanistan sliding back into Iraq-style violence, things need to change on the ground soon.

• The security situation in Afghanistan is deteriorating. The insurgency in Afghanistan is gaining ground and is “growing and becoming more effective” – something that even the Bush administration has admitted. They have learned from their neighbors to the east in Iraq and are increasingly using the tactics seen in Iraq, including suicide bombings, which ... have quadrupled in the past year. Some attribute the spike in violence to a government that isn’t paying attention to a vast territory and drug traffickers, criminals, Taliban gunmen and suicide bombers are operating with no fear of recrimination. Last year “1,600 people, including 91 U.S. troops, were killed ... more than double the total in 2004.”
  
  
• Drug production in Afghanistan has skyrocketed since 2002. In 2001, when the U.S.-led coalition deposed the Taliban, drug production slowed down. Since then, it has skyrocketed, and in 2005, Afghanistan produced 87 percent of the world’s opium. The value of this opium was $2.7 billion, which is more than 50% of the Afghan economy. More and more people will turn to the lucrative business of drug trafficking if the Afghan economy doesn’t expand enough to provide adequate employment and income for its citizens.
  
  
• The Bush administration has failed to finish the mission in Afghanistan. The Bush administration diverted resources from Afghanistan to a war of choice in Iraq, leaving a mission unaccomplished in Afghanistan, the country that served as the base for September 11th attacks. The United States and its allies must commit to reconstruction and keeping Afghanistan from falling apart. The economic assistance Afghanistan received in 2002–2003 “was far below all Balkan operations, East Timor, and Iraq, and even below Namibia and Haiti” during the first two years of stabilization operations in those countries. And any increases in U.S. aid have gone mostly to security. While security is essential, economic viability is one way to help ensure a peaceful and secure society. More must be done to provide both physical security (American Progress has a plan [PDF]) and economic security for Afghanistan.