Iraq: A True Turning Point?

Iraq: A True Turning Point?

May 22, 2006

On Saturday, two days ahead of a constitutional deadline, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki named 36 men and women to his cabinet, marking "the inauguration of the country's first democratically elected, full-term government, with a four-year mandate." It was an historic milestone for a nation that spent 23 years under the boot of a vicious dictator, and a rare source of optimism for Iraqis now overwhelmed by anarchic civil war. American officials said they were "witnessing what might be the last chance to save the American enterprise in Iraq from a descent into chaos and civil war," while President Bush called the government's formation a "new day for the millions of Iraqis who want to live in freedom," yet again heralding a turning point despite the fact that the political transition process has so far failed to stabilize Iraq. Yet there are reasons to hope this new government may usher in real change. Leadership and strong diplomacy on the part of both the U.S. and Maliki will be needed to see this process through and bring about real change.

• There is reason to hope that Prime Minister Maliki will succeed where former interim Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari did not, but key posts remain unfilled. U.S. officials "expect Mr. Maliki to bring to the post a level of competence, decisiveness and straightforwardness they say was painfully lacking" in interim Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari. Maliki, in turn, has placed a greater emphasis on competent secretaries; new Oil Minister Hussein Shahristani, for instance, "has a reputation for integrity" and has "pledged that his first priority will be to root out corruption and increase production in the crippled industry." But by far the greatest challenge for the new government is achieving stability by reigning in the violent sectarian militias. In this respect, the government has already suffered "an embarrassing blow," as Maliki failed to "win the agreement of top Sunni and Shiite party leaders on the interior, defense and national security posts." Analysts expect the posts to be named within a few days, though the delay emphasized "the gulf between Iraq's two main communities on the crucial issues of sectarian bloodletting and the Sunni-led insurgency."
  
  
• Maliki's faces "sharp differences in at least four critical areas” where he will have to broker consensus -- 1) the role of Islam; 2) the division of Iraq's natural resources; 3) the structure of the Iraqi state, namely the size and authority of its central government; and 4) the best way to rebuild Iraq's economy and restore essential services." Chief among the many thorny issues that could tear apart Maliki's government is reviewing a constitution that Sunnis say gives Shi'ites and Kurds too much control over Iraq's vast oil resources and may eventually split the country." Yet the rebuilding of Iraq's economy may play a significant role in leading to political compromise on the other, more sensitive political disputes. Lt. Gen. Peter Chiarelli, the second-ranking U.S. general in Iraq, said last week that the key to advancing stability in the country is "getting a government that can revive the economy, 'take the angry young men off the street' and give them an alternative to violence."
  
  
• The U.S. should shift its Iraqi strategy paradigm from one of “nation building” to one of “conflict resolution” and employ strong diplomatic measures to bring about resolution. The political transition process has so far failed to stabilize Iraq. The sooner the United States recognizes that Iraq has become a failing state with a major internal conflict, the quicker it can work with allies to take appropriate diplomatic steps to resolve the conflict and bring peace and stability to Iraq. As American Progress has urged in its strategy for Iraq, Strategic Redeployment, the United States must shift the central paradigm from nation building to conflict resolution in Iraq. Working with the United Nations, President Bush should appoint a presidential envoy with the stature of a former secretary of state to organize a Geneva peace conference under the auspices of the United Nations. The conference would bring Iraq’s top leaders together in a setting modeled after the Dayton Accords that ended the conflict in the former Yugoslavia or the Bonn Conference on Afghanistan. (The 56-nation Organization of the Islamic Conference signaled this weekend that such a conference could lead to it sending "a peacekeeping force led by itself or the United Nations" to help curb violence in Iraq.)