Down to the Wire in Mexico

Down to the Wire in Mexico

July 7, 2006

On July 2, 41 million Mexicans went to the polls to participate in an election that "was the most competitive and transparent in Mexico's history." But not until yesterday could election officials announce that conservative former energy minister Felipe Calderón had beaten the left-leaning former Mexico City mayor Andrés Manuel López Obrador by less than one percentage point. The election is Mexico's "closest ever," and López Obrador has thus far not conceded defeat. Mexico may be in for an "acrimonious, drawn-out post-electoral struggle strikingly similar to the Florida recount in the 2000 U.S. presidential race." No matter who ultimately wins, Mexico's new president will have to deal with the country's "myriad problems," with perhaps the most important being "issues of poverty and jobs, and how to close a yawning chasm between rich and poor that has sent some 10 million Mexicans north of the border in search of work."

• The elections in Mexico were a peaceful success — for now. Soon after the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) called the election for Calderón, López Obrador "responded and for the first time formally called his supporters into the streets, inviting them to a mass rally" on Saturday. While some scholars feel a full recount is "unlikely" to happen, this election appears to be different those in the past. The IFE "welcomed hundreds of observers from all over the world," "voting passed without serious disruptions or complaints," and despite the initial tally being too close to call, "a nation gripped by suspense and leery of dirty tricks remained calm." American University's Robert Pastor said about the IFE, "They have done so much to prevent fraud, implemented all kinds of safeguards, none of which we have in the United States."

• Despite what the news media focused on, the campaign focused on poverty and jobs. The often negative campaign overshadowed what the election really was all about — poverty and jobs. The "most passionate issue of the campaign" was how to improve the Mexican economy, and while the two top candidates disagreed over methods, both agreed job creation was critical. "With [reform], Mexico can finally begin to harvest the fruits of a decade of crisis-free stability," wrote former foreign minister Jorge Castañeda. And both candidates agreed that changes were needed to improve the lives of all Mexican citizens.

• Mexico’s success is closely tied to the success of the United States. The futures of the Mexican and U.S. economies are deeply entwined. Mexico is our second largest trading partner. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, "88 percent of Mexico’s exports go to the U.S." and "14 percent of U.S. exports go to Mexico." In 2004, trade between our two nations was more than $275 billion, and since 1994, "the U.S. has accounted for 62 percent of all foreign direct investment in Mexico." In addition, Mexico ships 1.6 million barrels of oil a day to the U.S., making it the second largest U.S. oil supplier.