On April 28, Canadians elected the Liberal Party’s Mark Carney as the country’s new prime minister. The outcome marked the culmination of a stunning turn for the Liberals, who faced a 26-point deficit in public support as of January of this year. Prime Minister Carney effectively positioned Canada on the front lines of the global resistance to U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade wars and interventionist rhetoric, campaigning with the slogan “elbows up”—a reference to an aggressive defense in hockey. Carney also ran on change and competence, showing willingness to listen to the public and adjust less popular policies while also emphasizing his extensive career of public service and economic management. Carney’s strong posture exposed Trump’s weakness, and his success delivers a resounding message for Democrats in the United States and progressive leaders around the world: Strong, forward-leaning opposition is the way to win against the wrecking ball of President Trump’s harmful policies.
Road to elections
On January 6, 2025, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his intention to step down as party leader and prime minister, amid a Conservative lead in public opinion of 46 percent to his Liberal Party’s 20 percent. Two months later, Carney was elected as the Liberal Party’s leader and sworn in as prime minister of Canada.
The two months between Trudeau’s resignation and Carney’s election also saw the inauguration of President Trump, who swiftly placed Canada in his crosshairs. President Trump signed a February 1 executive order that imposed a 25 percent tariff on all Canadian imports, which he paused for 30 days before later exempting goods that were compliant with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement signed during Trump’s first term. President Trump also repeated a desire to make Canada the 51st U.S. state and falsely claimed that “massive” amounts of fentanyl entered the United States from Canada’s border.
Prime Minister Carney took a strong resistance posture against Trump’s unilateral and unprecedented actions, and nationwide polling in the week after his election as party leader showed that Liberals had gained a clear and enduring advantage against Conservatives after nearly four years of a Conservative lead in the polls. On March 23, Carney called for nationwide elections to earn his own mandate.
Carney’s winning campaign: A focus on the economy and strong leadership
Prime Minister Carney—who served as the governor of the Bank of Canada from 2008 to 2013, the governor of the Bank of England from 2013 to 2020, and most recently as the U.N. special envoy for climate action and finance—quickly became the lead candidate in the race to replace Prime Minister Trudeau. Carney’s leadership campaign highlighted the characteristics needed to stand up to Trump, and Carney leaned into this opposition with his “elbows up” campaign message.
In his first call as prime minister with President Trump on March 28, Carney delivered the forceful opposition he had promised: He clearly and forcefully rejected Trump’s claims to make Canada the 51st state, reflecting a strong national sentiment among Canadians, and promised to “implement retaliatory tariffs to protect Canadian workers.” Since the call, Prime Minister Carney has overseen the implementation of targeted tariffs on industries—such as whiskey and automobiles—that are politically salient in the United States.
Since taking office in March, Carney also focused on addressing a few of the least popular of the Trudeau government’s policies, demonstrating that he could listen to Canadians. For instance, Carney ended the unpopular consumer carbon tax—which Pierre Poilievre, leader of Conservative Party of Canada, used to attack Trudeau—while keeping other climate initiatives to show that climate policy should not be a burden on Canadian households.
Carney’s campaign proved successful not only in beating back the Conservative lead from earlier in the year, but also in shaping the narrative around the election and forcing Poilievre into a defensive posture. The campaign framed Poilievre, who had adopted much of Trump’s political approach—including a focus on culture wars and even a “Canada first” slogan—as a Trump-like figure, forcing Poilievre to distance himself from the U.S. president and his policy positions.
U.S. and global implications
Prime Minister Carney’s success demonstrates that resistance to President Trump’s bullying has mass popular appeal. Carney’s combination of a strong opposition posture and competent, change-oriented leadership proved to be a winning strategy to beat back a Conservative lead. Carney was successful in assigning directly to Trump the responsibility for actions harmful to the Canadian people, devising strategic retaliation that harmed Trump’s interests, and effectively tying his Conservative opponent to Trump’s toxic brand.
Carney’s firm counter has also exposed Trump’s weakness at a time when the U.S. president is facing a rapid decline in his approval rating at home. Carney has created a blueprint for leadership, showing that the choice is not limited to Trump’s wrecking ball or the status quo—leaders can remind voters that there can be two visions of change.
This success should echo across the United States and among other nations, where Democratic and progressive political leaders seek to navigate President Trump’s harmful policies and resist the global rise of the far right. Indeed, the American people—like their Canadian counterparts—deserve competent, democratic leadership. The takeaway for Democratic leaders in the United States and for progressive leaders the world over is that forceful opposition—not hesitation or obedience—delivers results.
The message is clear: The best way to beat a bully is to stand up to him.