Washington, D.C. — Union member support for Democrats grew during the 2024 election after falling to a low point during Donald Trump’s first presidential election in 2016. A new Center for American Progress Action Fund analysis finds that since 2016, union member support for Democratic Party candidates has increased each election cycle, hitting an 8.2 percentage-point margin in 2024. This increase in support was largely driven by union women.
This new analysis examines results from the 2012–2024 Cooperative Election Study to analyze union voters’ preferences among union and nonunion voters, charting how the advantage that Democratic candidates have among union members has changed over time. The key findings of this analysis include:
- Higher support for Democrats among union members has been driven mainly by women.
- Union voters were 8.2 percentage points more likely to vote for Kamala Harris in 2024, compared with nonunion voters. This margin is nearly twice as large as the 2016 margin of 4.4 percentage points and slightly higher than the 7.7 percentage point margin Joe Biden won by in 2020.
- Working-class women union members supported Harris by a margin of 14.1 percentage points compared with nonunion women voters—a slightly higher margin than among college-educated union women (13.7 percentage points).
- Male union members with a college degree supported Harris by a margin of 9.2 percentage points compared with nonunion men with a college degree.
- Union men without a college degree were slightly more likely to support Trump than their nonunion counterparts (by 2.2 percentage points) after being slightly more likely to vote for Democrats in 2016 and 2020.
- Similar gender gaps occurred among Hispanic and white working-class union members. Hispanic and white working-class union women supported Harris by 11.4 and 12.4 percentage-point margins, respectively, compared with similar nonunion voters, In comparison, Hispanic and white working-class union men favored Trump by 6.4 and 2.1 percentage-point margins, respectively, compared with similar nonunion voters.
- Much of the decline in working-class male union support for Democrats in 2024 occurred among the youngest voters—those ages 18 to 29.
“In the 2024 election cycle, union women drove increased support for Democratic candidates when compared with nonunion voters,” said Aurelia Glass, policy analyst for Inclusive Economy and co-author of the issue brief. “Unions remain effective at improving the popularity of pro-worker candidates. But, it’s up to pro-worker candidates to consider how to address the growing divide among working-class and college-educated voters, even among union members.”
Read the issue brief: “Women Are Driving the Rise in Union Member Support for Democrats” by Aurelia Glass and David Madland
For more information or to speak with an expert, please contact Sarah Nadeau at [email protected].